Are the Lions gearing up for a big splash in Free Agency

Currently the Lions are projected to be between 45-50 mil under the cap.

GG, Martin and A’Shawn are all expected to test FA. None are expected to be back.

M. Jones, Decker, Galloday and Slay are all wanting contract extensions. Some cap space will go here.

Snacks and Wagner could be sent packing to help clear up another 10 mil.

Slay is on the books for 13 mil. They would have approx 10 mil in savings if they cut or trade him. Rumor is he’s on the trade block.

Cutting Kennard would save the Lions almost another 5.8 mil. So I think he’s a possible cap casualty.

M. Jones is scheduled to make over 9 mil and the Lions could save 6.8 of it if they trade or cut him. Which is a possibility considering he finished two years in a row on the IR. If he’s not in the long term plans BQ could choose to move on now.

BQ and MP know they must win now. I think the message is clear that the Lions will be buyers come free agency. I think they are gearing up to make a splash.

I have a feeling we’re going to see a lot of roster changes this offseason.

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My understanding is Detroit is 44 mil under the cap, good for 18th. The average cap space for an NFL team right now is 45 mil, with Indianapolis, TB, Buffalo and Miami all having at least 90 mil. Drafting where they are, with their existing draft picks, it will cost roughly 12.5 mil to sign them if no trades happen, leaving Detroit with roughly 32 mil. As such, with the number of holes needing to be filled, depth signings, existing players resigned, I don’t expect Detroit to make any splash signings, maybe a mid tier FA or two.

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The Lions will have a hell of a lot more money than that once we trim some dead weight.

The truth is really a totally different story with the actual numbers that have to be spent by teams .

Quite simply the available space we have is $43 Million right now which puts us in the middle of the pack , once we release Wagner perhaps Kennard , Marvin, Snacks retiring we could be as high as $68 Million , a Slay trade or release would put at nearly $78.5 Million… in available space .

Like the other teams though that have a ton of space, they will not and wont spend it , they do not have to or actually in our case we do not have to .

We could release all the players I mentioned and be $78.5 under the cap for 2020 and replace those players with bottom money players that bump other lower numbered players into the top 51 against the cap and call it a year in 2020 …sad as that is .

The 2017 - 2020 allocated cap space for the second half of the CBA says we must spend 89% of the total cap numbers of those years …the total cap number for those years is roughly $ 731.0000 Million combined for which we are required as team to have used $650.5 Million (89%) over the span …even with cutting the players I named above we meet that number by nearly $1 Million dollars, other teams are in the same boat .

We can compete for any FA we want and really have no issue here …I expect a BIG signing like Air said and maybe 2 or 3 more DT Jones from the Chiefs would be stellar …we spend and do not cheap out …other teams will not .

I could definitely see Kennard getting cut or a restructure. Same with Marvin.

Slay, I’m a little less sure on. With him getting near the dreaded fall off age of 30 for CB play, they may not get enough interest to warrant a trade considering this is a make-or-break year for Quinn/Patricia. Same reason why there is no way in hell they draft a QB in the first.

Can’t believe anyone would be excited. About Quinn spending 78 million. If u get rid of GG, Robinson, snacks, wagner Marvin , Kennard and Slay. Lols it will be about as good as your big coach change. I can see Lions being the only team to go 0-16 twice. Lions Fans sure love the off season. Lols

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One of the things that has me worried is I (we) saw what this run defense looked like without Snacks. It was not good. I see a Snacks replacement as our biggest need in FA if he retires or fades into the sunset. And that is when it starts to feel like whack-a-mole with the roster holes.

Not remotely saying this is what is likely . I see Wagner & Ashawn being gone , Snacks we will keep if he wants to continue . Slay I can see staying and being re-upped as well, Kennard staying and Marvin Jones being a question mark. In FA I see a big DT signing and LB signing in the draft I see a #CB in the first , & hopefully SS Delpit, RB in the second (My Wish ) and a DT

My big Coach change ??? I’m the last person who wants a Coaching change.

Wasn’t really talking about u New York, was talking fans in general.

If we assume things play put exactly as you said NY, Wagners salary is 9 mil, by releasing we have a 5.8 mil cap hit, so we save the 3.2 mil. After signing the incoming draft class still only leaves us 35 mil. Don’t think we’re gonna find a better replacement for Marvin at his current contract, we’ll need to either sign or draft a replacement for Glasgow, Slay is a deal at his current cap hit. So we can swap out some players and their contracts, but long and short of it, I don’t think the new contracts are going to be less expensive. Release Snacks and getting a comparable replacement to his production in 2018 won’t cost less than his current contract.

Just a matter of opinion, but I don’t think Detroit is gonna be a landing spot for any tier 1 FAs. I think a couple mid tier FA, 1 being a LB, maybe a DT or OG are likely. Precisely why I expect a trade down this year, too many holes not enough dinero.

I am wondering if part of any “big” FA splash will be retaining Glasgow … ?

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We gain $6.1 Million by cutting Wagner not $3.2 .

The Draft class as a whole does not effect our 2020 Salary Cap …Only the top 51 players salaries do for example the Lions 2019 class roughly only cost us $5 Million against our cap in 2019 .
You said in the earlier post we would need $12.5 allocated to the rookie class when in reality it will be about half that.

Slay is not showing up for 2020 without a new deal , yeah he is signed , but the leverage he thought he had in 2019 he actually does have in 2020 . It’s either a new deal , a trade or a release I think no way he plays without protection, he would be dumb if he did.

Slay is definitely a tricky one this offseason. It’ll be interesting to see how its handled.

This is the quote I referenced from the Freepress re: Wagners cap hit. Maybe it changes if we cut him later.

The Lions don’t have any more guaranteed money on that deal, and will have to decide this offseason whether to pay Wagner his $9 million base salary for 2020 or take a $5.8 million cap hit to release him.Dec 29, 2019

Freep.com › lions › 2019/12/29

This is the link I referenced for rookie draft class cap numbers, says that pick #3 has a cap hit of 6.9 mil in 2020 and the entire class has a cap hit of roughly 12 mil. Didn’t read closely enough, says subtract $510k x number of picks (7) from the rookie draft pool. So from 12 mil subtract 3.5 mil= 8.5 mil cap hit for rookie draft class.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://overthecap.com/draft/&ved=2ahUKEwidtt-qxPXmAhX2B50JHfSNBocQFjAAegQIBBAB&usg=AOvVaw1oyPgOHmQJVpfDWsa1v6pH&cshid=1578539279160

Maybe the data sources I referenced are incorrect and you are correct, I didn’t research their credentials.

I think the discrepancy is that his salary goes to over 11 million this season (2020). Base plus signing is cap hit. So its about a six mill cap savings overall.

The article is correct , it’s how you interpreted the info that was wrong …

Wagner has no money guaranteed to him at this point …His Salary for 2020 is $9 Million but we also carry $2.9 Million in his bonus money that has been prorated for 2020 and the same in 2021 . So for 2020 he counts for $11.9 Million against our cap if we keep him and that is already figured in .

Cut him now and we save $9 Million in salary for 2020 but we would need to add his other $2.9 of prorated bonus money that would have been in 2021’s cap into this year because it gets accelerated so that makes the 9 we were saving only 6.1 gained with $5.8 dead add the two to double check and it’s $11.9

Our #3 overall will be about $6.3, #35 $1.5 , #67 700k …Total $8.5 Million but then you have to subtract 3 Salaries of 585.k that will be pushed down off the 51 that effect the cap numbers which total just over 1.7 Million, subtract from the $8.5 Million and the 2020 class will cost us $6.8 Million on the 2020 cap :wink:

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So 2020 cap savings by cutting

Jones 6.5 mil
Wagner 6 mil
Harrison 6.7 mil
Slay 10.4 mil
Kennard 5 mil

Roughly 34.5mil + 43 mil - 6 mil for rookies = 71 mil

I don’t think well find comparable replacements for those guys at the cap savings listed. I just don’t see how you make a splash signing in FA a la Trey Flowers 5/90 (18/yr) and find a new RT, DT, CB1, WR1, DE in addition to filling the holes we have at CB2, OG, slot WR, LB, DT2, DT3, and depth players not to mention extending Golladay and possibly Decker (although these likely won’t count against this years cap).

Suppose numbers can be manipulated, but Lions better plan on trading down a couple times and stockpiling some picks for depth. Lot of holes to plug.

The numbers are very much manipulated, and can be, and will be …
I do not see all of those players being gone but we have a ton of money here to sign anyone we want even if they all stayed …

In 2019 we signed …Flowers 5/$90 Million, Coleman 4/$36, J.James 4/$23 …
That’s $150 Million dollars in contracts over the next 4 to 5 years on 3 players that we signed to multi year deals …

Yet the three only consumed $11.5 Million in 2019 cap space for the same 3 players .

I want no part of Quantity in this draft…and I will be pissed if we move lower than #5 overall and we do not draft 5 players in the first 3 rounds with that trade down.

The Lions are in good shape. There are ways to structure things to make a couple very good signings. The key is who is really available and can they get them:

  1. AJ Green might be available, but he is a very nice piece for Burrow.
  2. Jones would be a great signing from KC, but why would they let him go?
  3. McCoy is the 3 tech penetrator from the DT position, but is he healthy enough?
  4. Conklin would be great for the run game, but would Tennessee let him go?
  5. Fowler might be available and give a speed rush!
  6. There are a couple CB’s that might be available, but they get bid up in FA as everyone needs one.

As you see there may not be a huge class of FA’s available if teams have money and want to retain their players. Trading is a great option if Quinn can get a trade partner. Many times it is the best value. How about trading Walker to the Giants for Tate and then signing Conklin?

A lot of any improvement we’ll see next year is going to come from last year’s draft class. Hock was a rookie. Expect a leap. Our young safeties, expect a leap (Walker will be year 3). Amani should make a big leap. Look for improvement with Hand getting healthy and hopefully Austin Bryant. Tavai should make a leap. You have to hope Davis starts to click. We saw Joe Dahl sort of “click” together this year. Maybe Crosby is next.

I hope they keep Marvin. He’s been a steal.

Kennard…Meh…I’d rather have a proper DE putting his hand in the dirt to rush the passer. Kennard has played well and I do like him, but I do think the Lions can get more bang for their buck in another player perhaps.

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