Coronavirus hotspots and updates and places to avoid

I thought maybe we should start a new thread so that new important info isn’t buried in an old thread. My goal of this thread was to be a more informative thread. Let’s try and keep the garbage out of it. Let’s try to only post current information.

If you want to discuss the virus, form political opinions, blame governments, etc than please do that in one of the other threads. Let’s keep this one as an informative thread only.

**I WOULD LIKE TO ASK THE MODS TO PLEASE KEEP THIS THREAD CLEAN OF GARBAGE. **

Here’s the good news…
I noticed that Michigan’s current death toll is less than 1%. To be honest it really is probably far less than that because so many people aren’t getting tested. The truth is that a very small percentage of cases are getting tested. If your not hospitalized then your probably not getting tested. We also know that 80% of the cases are mild too. There’s a good chance you’ve already been exposed. However that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t take this seriously and take necessary precautions.

Also I heard on the radio that China has had two consecutive days with no new cases. If this is true than maybe this thing just needs to run its course.

Bad News …

I’ll be the first to admit that I have taken this thing too lightly. I still think we as a society are overreacting some but the truth is that many long term Den Family members are at serious risk. I am 50, I am diabetic and I have PV which is a blood disease classified as a mild form of cancer. I take NSAID’s too. All of these make me a high risk.

What’s an NSAID? it is an anti-inflammatory. Like Motrin, Asprin, Celebrex and Naproxen’s. Apparently NSAID’s put you at a higher risk. So I quit taking mine today because I only take mine for swelling.

Here’s a list of the virus tracking in Michigan. We have our first case in the UP today. This article has places to avoid. Please read it.

https://infogram.com/coronavirus-in-michigan-1h7j4dr3783d2nr

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Interesting that the Yoopers want to close the bridge. I could see that with commercial traffic only.

According to the John Hopkins tracker the death toll is less than 1/2 percent of total confirmed cases.

See I am seeing 4.5% for the death toll worldwide. 15,430 deaths divided by 363,692 confirmed cases equal 4.5%, not less than the 1% you are saying

I don’t see how this changes anything. We are connected to Wisconsin on the other side…what about that?

You are correct I misspoke. Thanks for clarifying. I want to have accurate info in this thread.

In Michigan we’re less than 1/2 percent.

Worldwide is roughly 4.3% but please keep in mind that the worldwide rate is dropping.

Also keep in mind that these numbers are base on confirmed cases only. So the actual numbers are far lower.

If anything the current data coming out of the US is showing that we’re doing a far better job than other countries at handling this. Let’s hope that this hold to be true. We need a silver lining here.

Actually Germany is the country that has their shit together and did this right IMO. 27,546 cases with only 115 deaths. Their PM Merkle has a science background and understood the seriousness of this and shut the country down almost immediately

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Michigan order 2020-21 goes in effect tonight.

https://www.michigan.gov/whitmer/0,9309,7-387-90499_90705-522626--,00.html

I believe that the virus was here in the Yoop as far back as early December. Several folks I know had the symptoms, tested negative for flu…

Yup, heard the same thing, a lot of it was shortly after deer season and again a few in January-early February. The guys that got tested were negative for the flu as well.

Here in indiana and i am sure i had it late January too. Chinese students all over the country at our colleges headed home after finals in early December and came back early January. No way that all of them came back without bringing it with them.

I think me and my family may have had it too in February. We all got really sick. It spread thru my work to me and I brought it home to my wife and 3 kids. Lasted about 3 weeks then started to taper off. My youngest son who’s 14 went to the doctors and was negative for the flu. They told us it was something that needed to run its course. I’m hoping that was it but still being cautious and safe. Stay safe and healthy everyone.

Something ran through our family at Xmas time as well.

Places to avoid? Cities. Any city.

God I can’t wait to retire in two years and build up north.

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Your math is technically correct given the information you are looking at…but that information is very misleading … so your math is not correct in reality. Let me explain.

I am going to use simple numbers to make it easy to understand.
If the information you are looking at says

1,000 confirmed cases and 40 dead that indicates a 4% mortality rate

But that does not account for the huge number of people that are in reality positive but have not been tested. It is easy to count the deaths. That is pretty much an absolute number. But it is very difficult to estimate the true number of peoplt that are positive for COVID-19. A dramatic example is that Ohio last week was reporting less than 400 cases positive for COVID-19 but said they were making their decisions based on an estimated 100,000+ people being positive at that moment. We are talking a reality vs confirmed ratio of more than 250 times more people sick than reported confirmed. Yet the actual deaths don’t change. (assuming there are not dead people laying around all over the place that haven’t been found)

So back to the example of the website saying 40 dead and 1000 confirmed cases that you calculate to be a 4% mortality … what if there are 1,000 untested positives. Then reality is 40 dead out of 2,000 real positives = 2% mortality. What if there are really 3,000 untested positives? Then the real numbers are 40 dead out of 4,000 real positives = 1% mortality.

That is if you only assume 3x untested positive vs. confirmed positives. Ohio was assuming 250x untested postives vs. confirmed positives.

And also it can reasonably be assumed that some number of the current positive cases (both the confirmed and large quantity of unconfirmed) will die rather than recover.

So your math is correct on the data you are looking at. But the number of confirmed cases is nowhere near the number of actual positives out there.

And the number of deaths vs positives is still fluid because we can assume some of the current positives (tested and untested) will die. So it is very difficult to get a true mortality % but you can assume it is much much lower than the simple math of dividing the number of deaths vs. the reported confirmed cases at any snapshot in time because there are more untested positives than tested positives by a huge factor and there are deaths that will come from the current positives that haven’t occurred yet

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I want to jump in here, and I hope I didn’t miss it.

But all numbers are wrong.

Hospital systems are seeing a high number of "PUI"s or People suspected of being infected, or those presumed to have COVID that because of their certainty they have it are not using a test. Because tests are so few are far between, the fed is not allowing hospital systems to report PUIs, only “Confirmed” cases along with “confirmed” cases that have resulted in death.

So PUIs and PUI deaths are not being reported.

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:+1:

Bottom line is that it will be quite a while before we have a real good idea of WTF this really was fatality % wise

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This is a good article that folks should read. It gives a good history of the response and consequences with the 1918 Spanish Flu.

There are certainly some parralels.