In my hopefullness of finding 4D chess where there probably isn’t any…
Erdogan gets OK to isolate Turk Kurds and push them hard enough for them to be pliable.
Russia gets US out of western Syria…and truth be told western Syria IS Syria in the historical and ethnic sense.
Kurds get East Syria. When you look at the ethnic distribution map of where the Kurds are it’s this big continuous blob of people that covers Northern Iraq Eastern Syria Eastern Turkey and Northwestern Iran, and then this little tendril of people running across the northern Syria border with Turkey. If you look at a compromise level Kurdish State solution it was never going to include Turkish territory and probably not the little enclaves in Northwest Syria. Eastern Syria Northern Iraq oh, that’s what a compromise Kurdistan looks like.
Problem with that is it would have been a lot easier to do while we still had a shitload of troops in Iraq and essentially ran the country. So if the northern Iraqi Kurds declared a state we could essentially back them up. Now they could probably defend themselves as well from the joke of an Iraqi Army but probably not from Iran, who has a small Enclave of Kurds in their Northwest across the mountains from where Northern and Eastern Syria Kurds are.
So basically you tell the Kurds they got to move their ass out of Turkey and Iran but they get their own nation state my guess is that over time they would accept that proposition figuring that over a larger scale of time they might be able to suck those territories back up. They have the oil of Northern Iraq and enough space to be able to defend in depth of any kind of ground invasion, Plus assurances from us that we would probably build up their military like we’ve done with Saudi Arabia over time or come to the raid in case Iran tries to preempt that. What the Turks would have to agree to is 2 allow the new Kurdistan to transport their oil to the Black Sea for Market as otherwise there landlocked and enemy blocked. Also obviously they would get transport fees. Pretty good deal for moving millions of potential generational terrorists out of the Wasteland 1/3 of your country that you can’t really effectively police.
Kurds win, Turkey wins, Russia wins, we win, Iran loses and thus KSA wins. Israel doesn’t get a full Shia Crescent land bridge severing, but it narrows down where to airstrike to a strip of Anbar province between Jordan and Raqqa, which is a start…
Probably get us sucked into defending Kurdistan when Iran goes all Arab League 1947 on them…but it’s about the only plausible reason why we haven’t done it. Because it’s risky.
Neville Chamberlain didn’t take risks. Churchill did and got ass raped in Gallipoli…but eventually he’s know as the Lion of England and Chamberlain a multi century synonym for a cowardly pussy.