Miami Dolphins not sold on Tua and likes Herbert

The smoke is really starting to rise in Miami that they may like Herbert over Tua.

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/armando-salguero/article240357851.html

This got me thinking. What if they choose to stay put?

I don’t think they can if they really want their choice of QB’s in fact unless they are ok drafting Love they really have to trade up. If they stay pat they open the door for CAR, SD or possibly even IND.

If BQ was smart he would start leaking info that Car, SD, Jax, TB and IND are all looking to trade up. Drive that price up BQ!

I don’t think they’re the only team in need of a QB who likes Herbert.

I think most fans who want to trade down are overvaluing teams wanting to draft a QB in the first round.

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For the Lions sake it only takes two teams.

MIA, CAR, SD, TB, NE and INDY are all QB needy teams.

I don’t see BQ trading past SD to be honest.

Not really… it happens every year.
Let’s say you could draft a Hall of Fame player at DE at CB or at QB. Which would be the better move?

The DE will get lots of sacks and tackles and win some games.
The CB will get plenty of interceptions and help win some games
The QB will win you lots of games and most likely won a lot of play-off games and maybe a SuperBowl to get to the Hall. It is the most meaningful position in all of sports.

There is a reason teams try to get a QB early in the draft and stats that show more 1st rounders get to a SuperBowl than any other round by far. Somebody here posted that analysis not long ago.

Well, it certainly may be the case and I’ve thought that too for some time. The combine will probably shake some of that out either way but for me I see 3 guys that are simply pretty close. Tua, if healthy, is the exception but I don’t know how anyone can think it’s not a dice roll. Burrow, is he a one year wonder? Herbert has the size and ceiling IMO. The only thing that drives this is that those 3 are really your best bet, it changes significantly for me. Not sure some teams won’t simply sit pat that people are expecting to jump up and make ridiculous offers.

I am not saying ridiculous offers need to be made.

But … if MIA wants a QB and decided to just sit pat and wait to see who falls to them. I would bet they would regret it.

A team like SD could easily trade up to 3 and take Herbert. Then CAR could jump them and draft Tua.

Mia is then stuck drafting Love or passing on a QB.

Mia will try to trade up the question is will Wash or DET take the trade or draft a player.

I wouldn’t be shocked if BQ gets good trade offers and turns them down. (Because he fell in love with a certain player) He did it last year.

Cincy may be really high on Herbert having coached him at the Senior Bowl. Or maybe Miami trades with Ciny for Herbert. It’s possible the first 3 picks in the draft are QBs and Detroit gets a nice trade down.

Miami would be smart to draft Herbert over Tua!

Don’t forget about Raiders looking for a QB an they have the bait also

This has the potential to be one of the most exciting drafts in a while. There could be 5-10 trades within the 1st round.

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I hear what people are saying but the teams that have won the Superbowl the last 20 years (probably the same going back further) didn’t rely on a top 5 pick to help them win. In fact only the Manning brothers are top 5 picks that have won the Superbowl. That shows that having a top pick QB is not always the formula to winning a SB, just making the right pick is the most important whether it is QB, DE, CB or whatever.

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To be honest Tom Brady kinda skews the stats.

But let’s not forget that KC traded up to get their QB.

Goff was the Super Bowl losing QB in 2018 and he went #1 overall. The Rams traded up to get him.

Matt Ryan the 2016 losing QB was drafted 3rd overall.

2015 Winning QB was P. Manning (#1 overall) Cam Newton was the losing QB (also #1 overall pick)

So in the last 5 superbowls we have 4 QB’s drafted in the top 3 and one drafted at 10th overall.

Besides this really doesn’t matter because QB’s are by far the highest drafted position in the top 3 of the draft. Nearly every year someone is trading up to get one. That’s really all that matters. NFL teams value QB’s and they’re willing to pay up to get one.

Of course they are the most drafted because if you find one that is really good, it helps your team win. But it isn’t a guarantee because most QBs that are drafted in the top 5 have never won, let alone play in a Superbowl and probably more importantly, there is only 32 of them that start versus multiple guys who play similar positions.

But I don’t buy this whole notion that there is 6, 7, 8 teams that are going to bid multiple high draft picks on basically 3 QBs. If anything, one team at most might trade up. Miami, Carolina, SD are not all going to trade up for a QB. I know you probably hope for a Hershel Walker deal for #3, but it’s just not gonna happen.

[quote=“Air2theThrown, post:7, topic:3773, full:true”]

Right - ‘falling in love with a player’ is the worst thing you can do. It happened with Hockenson and Tabor. We could have gotten these players later with added picks. I can imagine Burrow going 1, Washington taking CY, and us taking Okudah or Brown. When we probably could have had either with an added second rounder. In the post-draft press conference, Quinn will say he had some offers but they weren’t good enough. Right.

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If this is true (and it’s hard to believe any of these rumors leading up to the draft) then that might increase a trade down possibility because all the talk is that the Chargers are highest on Herbert.

Smoke will be going every direction in this draft. If there is legitimate interest in a QB at #3, the Lions will get a nice TD scenario. If teams do not want to come up to Detroit’s price, they can use the pick on the best player. I don’t see how the Lions can lose if they have a decent FA period, they should add at least 4 new starters. This is still not a bad offseason:

FA - RB Brieda, DL Armstead/Jones/Suh/McCoy, CB Harris/Logan

Draft

  1. LB Simmons (Okudah/Brown depending on FA)
  2. OT Jones/Becton
  3. WR Johnson/Aiyuk/Reagor

You can say that about every position that’s been drafted in the top 5 but if you actually look at who was drafted top 5 in the last 10 years the QB has the highest count of making a SB than any other position. Look it up.

I never said there was …
With several QB needy teams we only need one to be willing to trade up.

Actually I’m not - but u do think the Lions can get market value and very possibly above market value in a trade down. Recent history suggests it and there are several QB needy team in the top 10 to help the possibilities.

I’m 100% confident the Lions will field trade offers.

Not to mention that if you look at the top DE’s and CB’s drafted in recent years. Several are now on other teams because their drafting team couldn’t afford or didn’t want to pay for their second contracts. QB’s and OT’s are the two positions that have the highest sticking power long term on a team. Meaning they get a second contract.

If I were a GM and I was drafting top 5 and I had equal QB, DT, OT, DE and DB options available to me then (based on needs) I rank them QB, OT, DT, DE and then DB. Because I have a much higher chance of resigning them if they’re a QB, DT or OT than I do if they are a DE or DB.

To clarify … what I am saying is that if BQ on draft day has Brown and Okudah having the same draft grade and that both are a need. He should take Brown because he has a higher chance of staying long term.

I think BQ will have trade down options and if he trades to pick #5 or #6 … I think he will have the opportunity to still take either Okudah or Brown possibly both. Hopefully he makes the trade.

I’d say the likelihood of Cincy liking Herbert more than Burrow is greater than the likelihood of Miami liking Herbert more than Tua.

I don’t know how much of this stuff is smoke from the organizations or how much is just media frenzy.