My Armchair Drafting > Better Than Bob Quinn

I barely watch college football, and pay moderate attention to the draft. After the first two rounds I’ll recognize less than 10% of the players that are drafted, but I usually have a strong preference of guys I’d like to target in the first two rounds based on high-impact positions (i.e. quarterback, defensive line, offensive line, wide receivers, secondary)

It got me thinking - how would my drafts compare to Bob Quinn’s? Given I spend about five casual hours a year in “draft prep,” Quinn should be able to outperform me, no?

I looked back at the past five years based on my best recollection and who was left on the board when our picks came to compare the results:

2020
Me: Okudah, Antoine Winfield Jr.
BQ: Okudah, DeAndre Swift

2019
Me: Ed Oliver, Greedy Williams
BQ: Hockenson, Tavai

2018
Me: Calvin Ridley, Dallas Goedert
BQ: Frank Ragnow, Kerryon Johnson

2017
Me: Jabril Peppers, JuJu Smith Shuster
BQ: Jarrad Davis, Teez Tabor!

2016
Me: Taylor Decker, Mackensie Alexander
BQ: Taylor Decker, A’Shawn Robinson

It’s sad. My drafts aren’t great but they are probably better than Quinn’s. It’s just not acceptable.

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Yeah, I think most of us have the same results. It’s embarrassing how bad Quinn is. My picks aren’t perfect either but I’m thinking Burns/Metcalf or Mccoy/Knox would be preferable to Hockenson/Tavai/Harris.

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Stevie Wonder could do better…than Opie !

I definitely feel there’s something to be said for ‘consensus’ drafting, where you just nab the consensus top rated guys. The Ravens have done it wonderfully over the years, they’re always nabbing surprise fallers and making out like gangbusters because of it.

What happens I think is they pore over so much tape they miss the forest for the trees. My brother works in finance, and his company has a ‘big picture’ guy for this exact reason. He’s always comparing the market to the draft, you can get lost in the minutiae of both.

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Rick Spielman does precisely that pretty often.

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I said on here awhile ago that I’d like some college student working towards his doctorate or something to take a look, now that the NFL Draft has blown up into such an over-analyzed phenomenon, whether teams would have been better off drafting the consensus national mock draft prognostication for their picks, instead of the picks they made? Like, the consensus picks from all the prognosticators, and even include all the fans if you want, just before the draft.

I almost guarantee that the Lions would have been better off. Maybe not the better teams.

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There is no consensus national mock. In fact, the most popular national mocksters have multiple versions of their mocks.

Yeah and most everyone copies off one or two of the respected mock guys.

I dont know about you guys but in the 2021 Draft one of my favorites players is Micah Parsons. Man can that kid play. He’s the type of LBer you build a team around.

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Parsons is my favorite defensive player in the draft

Rondale Moore is a weapon that some smart GM not-named Quinn will draft.

Moore is so damn fun to watch

I like Moore and several other WR’s coming out this year. It looks to be another strong WR class at first glance.

Yep. He’s got future superstar written all over him.

The WR class is so incredibly deep this year. Even more so than last year. I love Moore but I think we can still get a guy like Terry at the top of round two who can be an absolute star as well.

From a pure entertainment standpoint Moore, Wallace and Waddle are the three I enjoy watching the most. Not that entertainment value should be the determining factor or anything.

Put all the mocks in a database. See what comes out as most popular in each round. Voila! Consensus national mock.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is an absolute killer as well.

Man is this right, it’s a great year to need a receiver. I think this might be the norm going forward with how much colleges pass now, but nevertheless, what a class. My love for Wallace is well known and yet I’d take both Waddle and Moore before him. I’m a little less high on St. Brown, but I really love Terrace Marshall, Tutu Atwell and Dazz Newsome as mid-late round options (though it wouldn’t shock me if Marshall played and tested himself into the first round).

I also think Chase is gonna get picked apart and go towards the end of the first a la Ridley a few years back, and I’d love to grab him there. You’re already starting to see draft twitter poke holes in his game over his athleticism and lack of strength. I guarantee he’s gonna be one of those forest-for-the-trees guys I was talking about earlier, the whole league is gonna over-think themselves on him.

Waddle is a beast after the catch. I believe that’s something we’re missing in our WR group now.

D. Smith another Alabama product has been impressive as well. But I do worry that he needs to get bigger and stronger for the NFL. I think his weight will hurt his draft stock.

Here’s how I see it:

Every GM is going to have good and bad picks. Forget about the the individual blunders, and focus on the big picture … rationale for picks, and team building.

This is where Mayhew and Quinn have fallen flat. The smartest-guy-in-the-room 2nd round picks that flame out are the ones that eventually crush your team. ie- Broyles, Tabor, etc.

Anyone off the street could build a team using a few simple criteria:

Best available.
Performed well versus top competition.
Physically dominant (don’t need to add 25lbs to play mlb)
Healthy - available.

We draft so many players that fail to meet some of these simple criteria … with questionable health, smaller schools, undersized. It makes me want to puke.

Every once in a while there is an exception, but you can’t build a team on the rare exception.

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