NFL draft history suggests the Lions will draft

I decided to look up the NFL draft history to help us predict what position the Lions may select. I went back from 2019 to 2009 in NFL drafts.

At pick #3 there have been

4 - DE’s
3 - DT’s
2 - QB’s
1 - LBer
1 - RB

7 defensive linemen suggests that if the Lions stay at 3 that a DE or DT is a high probability.

So let’s look a little deeper.

In picks 1-3

14 - QB’s
7 - DE’s
4 - DT’s
4 - OT’s
2 - RB’s
2 - LBers.

This would suggest it’s highly likely we would select a QB or a DL mainly a DE.

So let’s look at picks 1-5
15 - QB’s
10 - DE’s
7 - OT’s
5 - LBers
5 - WR’s
4 - RB’s
4 - DB’s
4 - DT’s
1 - OG

Here’s where it got a little interesting … while no DB’s went in the first 3 picks. History suggests that DB and DT are just as likely to go in the first 5 picks but both fell just one behind WR and LBer. I’d argue that LBer, WR, DT and DB are basically the same odds.

So the conclusion is that if the Lions stay at 3 the odds are heavy we would take a QB or DE and after those two options it’s equally likely we would take a DT, DB, LB, RB or WR.

So based on these facts what position do you predict we take and who?

I say DE - Chase Young

And I hope you are right

May want to explain your research better. You imply that zero DBs were taken in the first three rounds over the last ten years? Obviously not true.

Outside of punters/kickers, I guess I’m not seeing how what other teams did at that same position in any way dictates what the Lions will do for their team needs.

No that’s correct. None taken in the first 3 picks not rounds. Typo.

If we were to hold our GM Quinn to this and use Draft History as the precedent as you did here …

Also when we add in the selection of TE Hockenson at #8 a year earlier and to a lesser extent, a Center in Ragnow at #18 2 years earlier …doesn’t the entire idea of holding Quinn or predicting anything Quinn, or the Lions will do at #3 prove 100% worthless ?

With what we know and how Quinn has marched to his own drum , wouldn’t the selection of CB Okudah be more likely ?

No. if you follow the pattern AND Quinn’s history he will stick with a DE but somebody everybody else has listed as a 3rd round pick. HAAAAAA

Pretty much … lol

I’d say it’s more likely he takes a position far less likely. Possibly an OG?