Look at what teams pay to move up and draft a QB:
The Redskins traded their 2012 1st round pick (#6 overall), their 2013 1st round pick (#22 overall), their 2014 1st round pick (#2 overall) and their 2012 2nd round pick (#39 overall) to trade up to #2 for RGIII in 2012. If we go by the Jimmy Johnson trade chart (and the rule that future picks are discounted one round), that’s a 20% overpay (2600-3130).
The Jets traded their 2018 1st round pick (#6 overall), two of their 2018 2nd round picks (#s 37 & 49) and a 2019 2nd round pick (#34 overall) to trade up to draft Sam Darnold at #3 overall in 2018. That’s a 27% overpay (2200-2800).
The Bills traded their 2018 1st round pick (#12) and two 2018 second round picks (#s 53 & 56) for the Buccaneers 1st round pick (#7) and a 7th rounder (255). That’s a 27% overpay.
Even the Bears traded their 2017 1st round pick (#3 overall), 2017 3rd round pick (#67 overall), 2017 4th round pick (#111) and a 2018 3rd round pick (#70 overall) to trade up to #2 overall and draft Mitch Trubisky (heh heh). That’s a 7% overpay to go one spot.
The further a team trades to move up, the less they theoretically have to overpay. But tell me this doesn’t sound like an overpay: the Rams gave their 2016 1st round pick (#15), two second round picks (43 & 45), a 3rd round pick (76), and their 2017 1st round pick (#5) and third round pick (#100) to Tennessee for the first overall pick, a 4th rounder (113) and a 6th rounder (177) to trade up for Jared Goff. Not technically an overpay, but only because the first overall pick is so disproportionately valuable, I think even the teams realize it. Just to equal the point value they have to cobble together a ton of additional picks. The same year the Eagles sent their 2016 1st round pick (#8), a 3rd round pick (#77), a 4th round pick (100) and their 2017 1st round pick (#12) and a 2018 2nd rounder (#64) to the Browns for the 2nd overall pick (Wentz) and a 5th rounder in 2017. Also not technically an overpay, but it sure feels like it. I also think future first-rounders are undervalued by the chart.
Why does this happen? Because GMs are willing to pay it for the most important position in football. So I think it’s fair to say we can expect more in a trade than equal value on the trade chart, especially if the trading team isn’t moving up too far. So from the Dolphins, Chargers, and Panthers I’d expect at least a 30% overpay. From the Bucs, Colts, Raiders, etc…, I’d expect a ton of picks.
But we have another thing going for us: scarcity at QB in the draft, and a lot of teams wanting one. If Tua’s medicals check out, I think we might be able to ask for the moon and we might be able to get it. I think the Chargers will be very active trying to move up, they need to make a splash as they move into that new stadium and very few players are as splashy as Tua this year. I expect Gruden will absolutely love him, same with the Colts, both of whom have plenty of ammo. And of course we know about the Dolphins and their draft capital. I think a real bidding war could break out, we might get one of the best hauls ever for a draft pick.
For instance, a 30% overpay from the Dolphins for the 3rd pick would look something like: #5 overall, #26, #39. Or, #5 overall, #18 overall, 2021 3rd round pick. Or, #5 overall, #26, #70, 2021 2nd round pick. Something along those lines. And we might be able to get more than that.
The Chargers could offer us something like: #6, #37, #102 and a 2021 1st rounder. The Raiders have 2 first-rounders and 3 third-rounders, they’d have to give us ALL of those and then some. The Colts have a 1st and 2 seconds, we’d need all of those plus a 1st and a 2nd next year. Dream big.
It’s true Herbert might hold our compensation down a little - he’ll certainly be used that way by other teams - but he also might help. The Giants are right behind us and Gettleman has never traded down, and in fact is on record saying he doesn’t like to. Which makes #5 the hot spot for the third QB to be drafted, and that’s either us or the Dolphins. So whether you prefer Herbert or Tua, trading with us at #3 is your best bet to get one of them.