Paying a premium to trade up for a QB

Look at what teams pay to move up and draft a QB:

  • The Redskins traded their 2012 1st round pick (#6 overall), their 2013 1st round pick (#22 overall), their 2014 1st round pick (#2 overall) and their 2012 2nd round pick (#39 overall) to trade up to #2 for RGIII in 2012. If we go by the Jimmy Johnson trade chart (and the rule that future picks are discounted one round), that’s a 20% overpay (2600-3130).

  • The Jets traded their 2018 1st round pick (#6 overall), two of their 2018 2nd round picks (#s 37 & 49) and a 2019 2nd round pick (#34 overall) to trade up to draft Sam Darnold at #3 overall in 2018. That’s a 27% overpay (2200-2800).

  • The Bills traded their 2018 1st round pick (#12) and two 2018 second round picks (#s 53 & 56) for the Buccaneers 1st round pick (#7) and a 7th rounder (255). That’s a 27% overpay.

  • Even the Bears traded their 2017 1st round pick (#3 overall), 2017 3rd round pick (#67 overall), 2017 4th round pick (#111) and a 2018 3rd round pick (#70 overall) to trade up to #2 overall and draft Mitch Trubisky (heh heh). That’s a 7% overpay to go one spot.

The further a team trades to move up, the less they theoretically have to overpay. But tell me this doesn’t sound like an overpay: the Rams gave their 2016 1st round pick (#15), two second round picks (43 & 45), a 3rd round pick (76), and their 2017 1st round pick (#5) and third round pick (#100) to Tennessee for the first overall pick, a 4th rounder (113) and a 6th rounder (177) to trade up for Jared Goff. Not technically an overpay, but only because the first overall pick is so disproportionately valuable, I think even the teams realize it. Just to equal the point value they have to cobble together a ton of additional picks. The same year the Eagles sent their 2016 1st round pick (#8), a 3rd round pick (#77), a 4th round pick (100) and their 2017 1st round pick (#12) and a 2018 2nd rounder (#64) to the Browns for the 2nd overall pick (Wentz) and a 5th rounder in 2017. Also not technically an overpay, but it sure feels like it. I also think future first-rounders are undervalued by the chart.

Why does this happen? Because GMs are willing to pay it for the most important position in football. So I think it’s fair to say we can expect more in a trade than equal value on the trade chart, especially if the trading team isn’t moving up too far. So from the Dolphins, Chargers, and Panthers I’d expect at least a 30% overpay. From the Bucs, Colts, Raiders, etc…, I’d expect a ton of picks.

But we have another thing going for us: scarcity at QB in the draft, and a lot of teams wanting one. If Tua’s medicals check out, I think we might be able to ask for the moon and we might be able to get it. I think the Chargers will be very active trying to move up, they need to make a splash as they move into that new stadium and very few players are as splashy as Tua this year. I expect Gruden will absolutely love him, same with the Colts, both of whom have plenty of ammo. And of course we know about the Dolphins and their draft capital. I think a real bidding war could break out, we might get one of the best hauls ever for a draft pick.

For instance, a 30% overpay from the Dolphins for the 3rd pick would look something like: #5 overall, #26, #39. Or, #5 overall, #18 overall, 2021 3rd round pick. Or, #5 overall, #26, #70, 2021 2nd round pick. Something along those lines. And we might be able to get more than that.

The Chargers could offer us something like: #6, #37, #102 and a 2021 1st rounder. The Raiders have 2 first-rounders and 3 third-rounders, they’d have to give us ALL of those and then some. The Colts have a 1st and 2 seconds, we’d need all of those plus a 1st and a 2nd next year. Dream big.

It’s true Herbert might hold our compensation down a little - he’ll certainly be used that way by other teams - but he also might help. The Giants are right behind us and Gettleman has never traded down, and in fact is on record saying he doesn’t like to. Which makes #5 the hot spot for the third QB to be drafted, and that’s either us or the Dolphins. So whether you prefer Herbert or Tua, trading with us at #3 is your best bet to get one of them.

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I like your thinking. I hope we trade with Miami for a haul and move to 5. Then Gettleman takes a Tackle @#4 if he holds true to never trading down. Then at pick #5 the Chargers and Panthers start a bidding war and we get more picks. Christmas in April. We need the top 3 to all look really good at their pro days. Who knows maybe Quinn falls in love with one of them.

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I always state I’m clueless with draft stuff.

But,this is the yr I agree with the idea we trade down vs holding our pick under BQ…

Herbert and Love are going to screw this up for us. Too many QBs going to drive the price down.

I think Herbert drives the price up …I think the best QB in this Draft is Herbert
How many times does the traits of a QB and what they can do as opposed to what they did in College dominate the selection , especially when what they saw in the traits and athlete is confirmed in shorts and in workouts and Pro Days…
Herbert is going to destroy the underwear Olympics. After this takes place and Burrows keeps running his mouth in regards to wanting to play for a winner etc …Herbert could be the #1 overall pick . If he is not the market for him will be huge .

I disagree, partially because I don’t think Love makes it into the conversation anywhere near the top and is more likely to go in the 2nd than anywhere near us (I think his ceiling is 13).

But having teams wanting Burrow, Tua and Herbert is great for us, since there’s 7 teams who could theoretically want QBs, and that’s not counting teams that would have to trade way up like the Saints and Pats. The Bengals will take one of them (most likely Burrow), the Redskins will take Young (or if they don’t, we will), then Tua or Herbert will go #3. It doesn’t matter which one, because whoever wants one or the other will have to jump other teams to ensure that they get their guy. Only Miami could theoretically wait and draft one, but they’ll know that other teams are trying to trade up with us, which would ruin that plan.

The only way it might not work out for us is if Miami is happy with either Tua or Herbert falling to them, but that rarely happens (teams usually fall in love with a guy), and Quinn still ought to be able to wring huge compensation out of the Chargers, Panthers, etc… by pretending we’re in talks with the Dolphins too, whether it’s true or not.

I think trading down to Carolina or San diego spot should get us alot but Quinn has not been a active trader . I think he blows this draft .hope i am wrong.

I simply don’t get the love for Love. I saw him play a couple games and he couldn’t have looked more unremarkable. He looked like a mediocre college QB with some ability to throw and run.
His season long stats were really poor, though I know they were much better the year before. Why the regression? I’m not sure but it can’t be anything good…
When the time does come to take a QB that could replace Stafford he better have a better look than Love…

Really appreciate all the research you put into this man. I would take point value for Miami’s pick. 5 and 39 for 3, which is a whopping 10 points in our favor. Anything more than that would be all too welcomed gravy. At 5 we can still get Okudah at much better value.

Miami at 5 and LAC at 7 will fall in love with somebody. See Trubisky. See Jones. When you are going to pull the trigger on your franchise QB, you don’t take the 3rd or 4th guy whoever is there. The position matters too much. My guess is that we either trade with Miami, trade with LAC, or we trade with Miami, then with LAC.

QB’s are very specific for teams. They will focus on a guy they want and will pay what it takes to get that particular guy.