Realistic Trade Compensation

I think we are all in agreement if Chase Young is gone…we want to deal the pick.

There are quite a few examples where teams jump to number 2. Wentz, Griffin, Trubisky, etc.

However lets take a look at what is probably the most similar scenario that the Lions will see. That is the Sam Darnold trade.

Jets get:

3 OA (Darnold)

Colts get:

6 OA
2nd rounder 37 OA
2nd rounder 49 OA
Next year 2nd rounder

So 3 2nd rounders (1 high 2nd) to move up 3 spots.

I think realistically you are looking at the following compensation from these teams. With Quinn in win now mode…they are probably going to look for draft picks this year as they likely won’t want to accept picks down the road.

Dolphins:

5 OA
26 OA (late 1st Rounder)
56 OA (2nd Rounder)

So in this scenario you take 2 of the 2nds from the Darnold deal and they become a late 1st rounder. I don’t think pick 18 is on the table…unless you get this deal:

5 OA
18 OA

Nothing else except maybe a swap of late rounders. The Fins obviously have the ammo…but do they want to fire it all?

Chargers:

6 OA
37 OA (2nd Rounder)
71 OA (3rd Rounder)
112 OA (4th Rounder)
Plus more

I don’t think the Chargers have a realistic shot of getting the pick unless they throw a hail mary and add in a future first round pick/picks or give us their whole draft. Like I said before with Quinn in win now mode they are not going to be looking for future picks. They will want high picks this year. The Chargers just don’t have the ammo.

Panthers:

7 OA
38 OA (2nd Rounder)
69 OA (3rd Rounder)
113 OA (4th Rounder)
Plus more

Insert comment about the Chargers here.

Jags:

9 OA
20 OA
42 OA (2nd Rounder)
118 OA (4th Rounder)

Moving from 3 to 9 is a long way…but i think the 20 and 4th rounder would be sufficient. This one actually has a shot. Maybe Khan wants to make a splash.

Raiders:

12 OA
19 OA
80 OA (3rd Rounder)
81 OA (3rd Rounder)
More late round picks

I think this one is also possible and similar to the Jags deal. Maybe swap some more late round picks around. You are obviously moving down farther from 3 to 12…

IMHO i still think the most likely scenario playing out is a team trading up to 2. If you have your mind made up that Tua is your guy…you are calling the Skins to get to 2. It’s not going to cost that much more to get to 2 than 3…so why not just go to 2 and not worry about someone else doing it.

What say you?

My favorite would be the Jags. Give me LB Simmons, one of the top OT available like Wirfs, Willis, or Becton, DL Brown, or CB Okudah the with the 20th pick Murray or a Edge rusher.

Quite frankly, if the Lions got Nos. 5 and 39 overall --or-- Nos. 5, 56, and 70 from the Dolphins I’d be happy in this uncertain, highly unusual, historic environment where the norms may not apply.

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=mia

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Yes.

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Something tells me he is going to be there. There really isn’t a reason for teams to trade up to 3…if they can trade up to 2.

My trade when doing mocks I try to do is

3

For

5
39
2021 hou 2nd

We drop down 2 spots get the guy we were gonna take at 3 while adding a early 2nd rd pick along with a potentially early 2nd next year

I think all of this really just depends on what team really falls in love with a particular prospect and feels they have to move up on draft day. Look at the Julio Jones trade. Cleveland moved way back but got 3 years of 1st round picks from Atlanta for it plus other picks…for a WR.

The falling in love portion this year may not happen because of a lack of pro days and medical checks, etc.

Let’s just be happy with Okudah at 3 and move on to round 2.

The Colts traded #13OA to the Niners for Buckner

I think Quinn and Patricia have already shown (agree or not with the path & direction) that they will stay true to the plan and who they are …I don’t think they are making choices for this team on the short term or in a win now mode .

If they fail (I don’t think they will ) and are canned at the end of the year (I do not think they will be ) or even anytime after , they will do so staying true and dying by their own sword and mantra … They wont sell out who they are.

They will accept the best deal or stay put and if the best deal means higher picks in 2021 they will take it …
I could see the Lions trading #3 for #5 , #26 & next years #1 …That’s what I want .
I could get on board with #5 , #26 & #39 all this year picks.

I see no way the Lions do not get 2 firsts trading away #3 …That would be a typical Lions type move and we would be the team that everyone says got robbed, when most other teams got 2 #1’s in trade downs for QB’s that high up

Also why believing what I do about them …put’s QB Herbert in play at #5 if they land another first in a trade down . They will look at the value at #5 and potential future and drafting a QB for the team post Matthew Stafford’s departure for 2 years from now…even if not for them . If they are allowed to draft QB early that tells me Martha is on board for the long haul…If I had my doubts about them I do not let them draft the future QB

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Yep. Crapola

Teams are only going to move into the top 5 to take a QB. Other positions really don’t have the impact that a QB does. Other than Josh Allen, you would be hard pressed to find a QB whose team did not make the playoffs (Ryan or maybe Prescott) who was better than any of the other QBs in the playoffs. It usually is like that.
Not even the great Aaron Donald impacts a game as much as a middle of the pack QB who plays well.

Recent reports now show the Dolphins looking to go to #1

I doubt any team get adequate compensation to trade down. I don’t think this group of QBs is any good. Every single one of these QBs are flawed in my opinion. But someone will come out of this group and be good, but I don’t see teams sacrificing their entire drafts to move up.

Even though I believe this, then I scratch my head and think about Trubisky…so there is that.

Only real problem I have with your original thought. I don’t think they are in a win now mode, despite what they tried to pass off as an explanation to not lose the entire season ticket holder market.

I don’t think the Lions should trade out of the top 5. If they want to trade down to 5, that’s fine. Top 5:

Burrow
Young
Tua
Simmons
Your choice of top OT

After that, the value falls off a cliff. You start getting into Okudah, WR, Brown, maybe an OT who isn’t your top choice territory. The value falls off a cliff after the top 5. You either trade with Miami or pick at 3.

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The only way I want them going lower than 5 is if they are getting multiple first and second round picks.

What if a team has two or three of the tackles ranked about the same? Then pick 6 and 7 could be in play. But I totally agree with your general premise. If we move down with LV or Jax I’d be looking to trade back up.

And I’ve kind of come around to your viewpoint from early in the off-season.

If Tua’s med checks out and we’re stuck at three, picking him probably is the saviest thing to do. Sit him in year 1 let Staff rehab his value and sling him for Alex Smith level compensation the following year.

No way BQ does that though IMO

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I’m absolutely coming around to this as well.

If we stay at 3…it has to be Young or Tua.

Sometimes you have to take a chance. The status quo hasn’t worked for the lions.

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