The experts; a look at Texas

2/ In “Superforecasting,” Philip Tetlock observes experts’ predictions are frequently disastrous - yet the media trots ‘em out again for more “expertise.”

His research finds forecasts by thoughtful, data-driven generalists often outperform experts.

8/ Unbiased experts took a different view. Dr. Gabriela Gomes (

@mgmgomes1

) has spent decades studying real-world transmission dynamics of diseases like COVID - and she believed herd immunity was <20%.

10/ What did Dr. Gomes do that many other experts did not?

Update her beliefs in response to new data.

This turns out to be key, key, key.

You can open the thread to read all the tweets, this was a good point

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Good stuff, been saying it for a while, this thing is burning out… Not because of masks or social distancing, but because of herd immunity. It’s funny, you used to be able to Google “daily death toll” and you’d get site after site listing and graphing deaths for the country… Now you see averages for the entire pandemic and have to search for any hard data. We’re under 500 deaths per day from this folks, and falling. But, yeah, let’s keep NYC closed and threaten more lock downs :roll_eyes:

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If you want to get into a good Twitter thread about the genesis of the lock down policies and WHO or what pushed this idea globally.
Here is a hint. The giant push for the lock down policy came from the same source as the virus.

The fact that the world allows China to run roughshod without consequences is the most concerning thing going on in the world today. People want to bitch and moan about social injustice here, but turn a blind eye to a country who started a pandemic, invaded a city and is sending Muslims to camps to he sterilized. It’s maddening… China is a source of evil that everyone around the globe is happy to let exist because of greed.

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Chiming in here, there were articles yesterday about Brazil and European communities that stated statistics showing cities that have not used masked or done social distancing have both seen huge declines for coronavirus, and that herd immunity may establish with as little as 20%.

This is extremely good news. The real fun part is, this IS real science, and yet if you use words like herd immunity, and accepting that there will be losses due to illness, you are callous and a monster. Herd immunity will be far more vital and effective than any man made vaccine. This virus was a new strain previously unknown to humans, and our bodies have to be exposed to it to learn how to fight it off.

I think people still get caught up in the idea that Covid infection = death sentence. That’s FAR from the truth. It can and has happened, which is terrible for those individuals and families. However, you are far more likely to be completely asymptomatic than you are to end up in the funeral home. The overwhelming odds are that you will either be asymptomatic or end up with the common cold/flu symptoms. Then there is a slim chance you could end up going to the doctor/hospitalization, a slimmer chance you end up in a respirator, and right now a roughly 3% chance you don’t make it. In the meantime, 97% of the population will survive, and as we are all more exposed to this, the chances of us getting sick from it diminish by the day.

What science is really showing us is this. There will be dramatic initial spikes, as people in the community who were not previously exposed get sick. As these people walk around, they will infect others around them. Most of these cases will either be asymptomatic, or mild flu cases. These people have now been exposed, will be fine, and now build antibodies to fight off the virus. The more people who actually get exposed, the more herd immunity develops, and all of a sudden, there is an equally sharp drop off in infections.

3rd law of physics. For every action in nature, there is an equal and opposite reaction. Everyone sees scales of virus infections going up, but no one is showing the scales of the numbers going back down. Instead its a panic that eventually everyone will get Covid. News flash. You will. Just like everyone gets chickenpox, cold, flu, etc. Covid spreads the same way, and will infect the same way. The good news is, despite the chances of it being lethal, just like the flu is, now that the human body is being exposed to it, the chances of death diminsh greatly. It WILL still happen. It just won’t be as terrible as we saw in the initial stages as we stumbled in the darkness. Now, not only is the human body going to be exposed to the virus and learn to fight it, but scientists and health officials have real world experience and are learning how to fight it. These are all good things.

When I was in 7th grade, I was lucky enough to get scarlet fever. My mom panicked when the doctor told me what I had, because she remembered as a kid, scarlet fever was a near death sentence and required quarantine. The doctor looked at her like she was crazy and said that was all in the past, we now know what the true dangers of scarlet fever were and how to stop that from happening. That’s what Covid will be soon enough.

In terms of China, the reason people let China do whatever the hell it wants isn’t simply because of greed. It’s cowardice. China is not afraid to rattle the sabre and is using the same tactics Hitler used in the 30’s in Germany. Aggressively push into new territory either by economic pressure, diplomatic pressure or outright brute force, and anyone that challenges you, you remind them they are in for a fight if they really want to do something about it. Most countries know they cannot stand against China and will quickly back down.

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Very well stated and all very true facts. I’ve been saying it since the beginning, protect the weak and let herd immunity take over… We braced for the initial impact and had a lot of lose early largely due to poor policy by some governors. Now, like you said, doctors understand the virus much better and contracting it is far less of a risk than it was initially. You can see this in the reduced hospitalizations, length of hospital stay and lower death rates. The MSM will continue to spin it bc that’s their best chance at getting their guy in power. People are starting to wake up now, which is probably a reason they want people to vote early by mail, by November, this thing will likely be a non issue anymore.

And you’re spot on with China… My hope is that the western world bands together and sanctions the fuck out of China, but I’m too optimistic I think.

Well said.

I guess I need to read up more on herd immunity because having it set in at 20% seems to me as saying that it is not terribly transmissible and that of 20% population with immunity would be enough to keep the R-naught under 1.0.

I may be misunderstanding it…time to go read, which I have plenty of time to do on a 44 surveillance shift …(aaaack!l, as Bill the Cat would say)

The reason the herd immunity appears to be so low is because about half the population already has antibodies in their system from exposure to other coronaviruses in the past… Herd immunity is usually reached around 65-70%. We’re close…

Hey abject since the other thread got locked I figured I’d respond here, your notion that removing stop signs for yield signs is in no way a valid comparison. You are replacing a safety measure with a different saftey measure. Remove stops signs and don’t replace them with anything and what happens?

11,917 people in Texas died from the flu in the 2017/18 flu year; Oct 1, 2017 - Oct 3, 2018.
Source is TX Dashboard

10,020 people in Texas died from the flu in the 2018 flu year
Source is the TX Dashboard

Right now Texas deaths due to Covid are at 11,576 as of 8/25/2020
Source is TX Dashboard.

You’re missing the point. Let’s say only 2% of the population really have to struggle with this thing and need medical aid. If we were to allow that 2% of the population to get sick as fast as the virus would spread without taking any precautions our healthcare system could become overwhelmed really quickly. We know this virus spreads at a remarkable rate. Herd immunity is absolutely the key we just need to implement it at a rate that doesn’t risk ruining the healthcare system.