I hate trying to “time” the market, but I simply don’t believe this is sustainable. Yes, things are opening up but it’s going to be a long time before we get anywhere close to even 7 or 8% unemployment. Took 50% of our stock investments to cash, so we still have a position in bonds and I’m conflicted over whether to put a floor in if there’s another quick down turn. There’s only been about 8 months or so when the S&P was higher than it is today. If I miss out, well, I miss out.
Yeah it’s a tough call right now as to if the rally has brought the market back to where it was going or if it’s just a dead cat bounce
The market is reacting to what investors think will be going on in the near future not what’s happening today and obviously investors believe we will come back but may have gotten ahead of themselves
I had been moving into cash and bonds late last year and had more than 50% of my position out of stocks when the 30% drop hit. I put 1/2 of that back in during February And have made a lot of money on that piece of my portfolio
Now I am like you and wondering if I shouldn’t be pulling some back off the table or let it ride through the recovery however long that takes
I do think we’ve bottomed out a while ago. But how long it takes for the economy to get back is TBD
I am 2 to 4 years away from retirement so I don’t wanna be too crazy but if I was always out I would definitely let it ride
I got about half sitting on the sidelines right now.
I was strongly in bonds prior to the crash, and I was pretty good about getting back into the general market via index funds pretty close to the bottom. I wish I could say that this was smart foresight, but I started moving in that direction prior to the 2016 election. I thought the market was overvalued at that time, so it shows what I know.
I’m still not in love with valuations, but I struggle with what else to do with capital right now, especially that which is tied up in 401(k) and IRA vehicles… can’t do much outside of the public market with that.
I’d love to hear if anyone has genius ideas.
Nobody in the history of the US stock market has lost money by being in a index fund for a 10 year period. There is no 10 year period of time where the chart over 10 years is lower on the right side than it is on the left side.
If you don’t need the money in the next couple years the safest thing to do is just put it in a index fund and leave it alone for a long period of time
I think it’s safe to assume the market is going to take another dive
June / July timeframe
Climb back on by say September— pre-election rally
Probably…and I will ride it out and buy on the dip
I havn’t sold anything during this whole thing but had a large cash and bond position going into this year. I moved money from cash/bonds to Nasdaq Index in Feb.
My 401K is up 10% for the year right now
I personally believe that there is some kind of disconnect between what the economy is doing and what the stock market is doing and that we may see things happen that have never happened before. We can’t afford to keep propping up co’s that are going to go bankrupt and there is no way that the recovery can keep up with what has been baked into this stock market cake.
I don’t see any point in being in the general market right now
My gold etf went up almost 100% after the crash
I’ve pulled out 30% or so
Wait for the selloff to play itself out, buy back in
I will probably load heavy on the next pullback
There’s a total disconnect
Fed buying up debt like crazy
The whole thing has turned into a farce
I agree…the spending has to stop. But the as things open up it will
The “disconnect” is that investors are not looking at the jobs reports for right now…they are betting (heavily) on the pent up demand and where we will be in 6-12 months.
This recession or whatever you want to call it is temporary. It was artificially created. The demand for things is still there. It will take a while to get rolling again but I have zero doubt we will be back to near where we were within a year.
But I am still 40-60 cash/bonds to stock so I have some parachute if it goes down and then ammo to buy (moving cash/bonds to stocks) after it bottoms if it does go down.
Just my opinion of course
I think the demand for “things” is being met, I can’t think of anything that I can’t get unless it’s the occasional run on paper products. New construction is still too high, even though March was 22% lower than the revised Feb. estimate it was still 1.2% higher than March of 2019. Banks are going to take a hit but when they crash they’re the safest bet out there. We bail them out BUT they pay us back. Wells Fargo has already lost 50% of their 12 month hi, and there are other underlying reasons why that happened, but when they are done crashing they’re money. Even if there isn’t the feared second wave of the virus, in what world is this sustainable?
This has been a great market to make money but I also think reality will set in and we will see more buying opportunities this summer. Jaded about a month ago I told you about HPS, HPI, and HPS. I liked the income but sold them recently as the gain was too good to pass up.
I too have been moving to cash (30%) as I don’t see much on the upside and the stocks I liked and sold are just too high right now. Index funds are fine in the large cap space but are less efficient in small cap and international. If you buy the S&P 500 you get some good stocks but also own Airlines, Hotels and Cruise businesses. It is market cap weighted so that cushions the blow a little. I am not big on small cap stocks as I think they will have the toughest recovery, especially ones who took on debt to survive. I also think Real Estate funds will take it on the chin as we see lots of bankruptcies and people not buying new buildings, rents decreasing on apartments, manufacturing facilities are vacant, hospitals are hemorrhaging cash, airports are vacant, restaurants will be closing, and more people are shopping online and not going to retail. Emerging markets are a good LONG term buy right now. I think manufacturing globally will be looking to move outside China and still find cheap labor. India is tops on my list but Pacific Rim countries should do well too. I am not a big fan of Mexico, but with the USMCA deal and cheap labor they should benefit long term too.
An odd one in my mix is the Motley Fool ETF. TMFC the brothers have a great history of finding stocks. I like David’s picks better but Tom is good too! bought it last August and is up about 15% even with market being down.
Went full cash W IRA in Feb. Might get back in this summer.
Play money, small amounts, in options, first foray into it. So far so good.
I’m no finance genius but the smart advice I’ve always heard: if you don’t need to cash out anytime soon, times like this you BUY.
I have the luxury of not planning to retire for another 20 years, so I’m bargain hunting. (I’m all long term anyway; I never try to time the market. Too many people way smarter than me looking to make money off my dumbass hunches.)
I was finally able to buy some Amazon a few weeks ago, and I’ve made as much money from that trade as I’ve made from working the last month, and I’ve been as busy as my business has ever been. On paper of course, but Amazon seems like a pretty safe long term bet. Safer than gold imo, unless you think we’re all about to be living in thunderdome. Which, I guess you never know…
Everyone’s situation is different, but for anyone that is retired, there are no Required Minimum Distributions this year. Good time to do a Roth Conversion to keep you in your marginal tax bracket.
Also, potentially a good time to do a Roth conversion for anyone as it’s better to do a Roth conversion when the market is down and let the interest grow tax free instead of tax deferred.
But again, everyone’s situation is different, talk to your financial advisor and/or tax accountant. I’m going to have my parents do a significant one when I think the market bottoms out.
REM, they said you was dead. Nice to see you check your pulse here once in a while. Times like this, you mean when the market has only been higher for 8 months ever and unemployment hasn’t been this low since the depression? The market is up over 1,300 points since April 21st, for me it isn’t more, it’s about keeping what I have. I’m not sure that there are any metrics that can support where the market is under the current economic conditions. For me, everyday it looks like we are jumping into 1 step forward, 2 steps back with re to recovery, time will tell. Now, that’s simply personal perception but I’ve done well enough that money isn’t and won’t be an issue as long as I’m solid where I’m at. Changing my vacation strategies next, thankfully fishing out west doesn’t pose too many threats.
I mean “times like this” when we’re staring down the barrel of a major recession/depression, the market is volatile, and everybody in it short term is freaking out.
I probably have a more optimistic view than some because the sector where I live and work, high tech, is going completely bonkers. Every single business basically has a fiduciary duty to buy my all my clients’ crap.
I think the next manufacturing boom will be Central America particularly CR and Panama as US companies leave China Same time zone as Dallas/Chicago and product arrives in days not weeks
After your other post I did move away from SP500 index to QQQ specifically to get away from the Airline and Hotel stocks in the SP500
Because I am 2-4 yrs from retirement I have to be risk adverse with a large % of my portfolio so I have part that I am conservative with and part that I am aggressive with
I like reading your thoughts!
Did that this yr too.