Trade all the way down

The Lions may as well trade that # 3 all the way down to last pick in the first or early second and get as many picks as they can to start the next rebuild which should begin around Thanksgiving 2020.

The elite talent seems to end around pick 15-ish, that’s where I’d like to be with our first 2 picks.

The Double Trade Down is dependent upon whether JAX or LVR want a QB worse than LAC in this draft.

3 for 5, 26 and 70, then 5 for 9, 20 or 12,19 and a 4th are my two wants. If Chase is there at 3 then no TD, as I doubt the secind TD would be for QB4 in this draft

9-20-26-35 is 4 starters pkus room for some Quinn smartest guy complex dart throws later

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The Lions have been drafting in the early middle to middle of each round. All they draft is depth. No playmakers. If the playmakers are in the top ten…Then I wanna draft in the top ten. I’m sick of people wanting more middle of the road talent. It hasn’t helped us. We have gotten our best players whenever we’ve drafted in the top five (Stafford, C.J., Suh, Barry, etc)

I agree here. However all the good players that are in the NFL are all not top picks also. It comes down too, when out of the top 5 pick (which is the round you spoke of) it comes down to the evaluation of talent. That’s where we have gone wrong mostly. IMO

This is where BQ and MP have been getting killed by fans and media. Now don’t get me wrong, this also goes with our past GMs and head coaches as well.

We just seem to hire these FO and head coaches that lack this gift. Now this also don’t mean they missed on every pick either. Because they have found some, like a Golladay etc. However they are few and far between.

I’d still almost rather have the multiple trade downs than CY…but the double trade down isn’t guaranteed after trading down to 5…but I’d still probably do it. The more young talent you have playing on rookie contracts, the better!

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I agree with thats2. Trading down and then up from the second is the way to go depending on how the board falls.

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Based on what? Why is that the way to go? What historical prove bears that out for the Lions? I’m genuinely curious. No shade

No worries. I wasn’t very specific. It’s just my opinion but I think the draft has fairly well defined tiers:

Tier 1:
Young
Burrow

Tier 2:
Tua
Herbert
Okudah
Simmons
Jeudy
Lamb
Ruggs
Wills
Thomas
Wirfs
Becton
Brown
Kinlaw
Henderson (maybe)

I think there is a large drop off after tier 2. Tier 3 is very deep however so assuming that Love goes in the top 15 as well I think we’d need to trade up to the 17-20 range in order to get 2 elite prospects depending how many reaches there are early in the draft.

If we can pry pick 26 out of the Dolphins in a trade-down, using both it and pick 35 is enough to get us back up to the 9th overall pick, using the updated trade chart (which is far better than the Jimmy Johnson one since it’s based on the trades that have actually been happening). I’m with you about the number of top tier players, but I think there’s a greater than 50% chance Love doesn’t go in the top 15 (I think there’s a good chance he doesn’t go in the 1st round - this year’s Drew Lock), so if I’m moving up I think 15 is the floor. Of course it depends on who’s still available, but surely one of the top OTs, WRs, Henderson or Brown or Kinlaw will make it that far.

Here is one I did last night. I didn’t capture the exact values, (if you want you can figure it out by looking at the pick numbers). I didn’t get insane comp or anything, probably fairly close to chart value, but I loved how it turned out and it felt like I took advantage of the top of the talent pools.

6 J.Okudah CB
35 C.Ruiz C/G
37 T.Lewis JACK
67 CEH RB
85 J.Lynch 5t/3t
109 L.Fotu NT
149 A.Jennings DE
166 J.Jackson G
182 T.Muse Hybrid WILL/S
235 D.Tuszka DE

That makes sense. Hard to say with the QBs as it just takes one offensive mind with some clout falling in love with a guy. Lock’s relative success might help Love a bit as well.

My second preferred strategy in a trade down scenario is amassing picks in the 45-70 range as I think that’s the draft has some decent depth.

Right, I agree. And there’s a way we can get the best of both worlds, if we trade back up to 12/13/14/15, we can ask for another mid-round pick too. For example trading 26 & 35 to Denver for #15 is a 78 point overpay by us. Well the Broncos also have pick 77 which is worth 60 points. Still an overpay but slight, and worth it in my opinion. So flipping 26 & 35 and we could end up with 2 high first round picks and 3 3rd rounders. I’d love that.

I agree. When combining value and scheme fit I fear that 35 might be no man’s land unless Epenesa slides.

Okudah and one of the top four tackles alone would be a B+ draft. I think the odds are pretty good that one of those four makes it to 15. It would be pretty slick to then follow that up with three thirds which has been a round that BQ has faired quite well in. I think what you suggested is pretty much a dream scenario.

Then something like Logan Wilson, Quez Watkins, Darrell Taylor in round three. Works for me. I’m pretty open minded about round three. Just kind of picked some guys that might fit, add traits our roster lacks and who might still be available. I think Wilson and Watkins may not be there as there skill sets seem to be in short supply in this draft.

Do you pass on Swift if he’s there? Taylor? To me those are two needle moving players for us. Seems like a lot of my 2a and 2b that I get with a LAC trade gives us our RB and RG. Swift/Ruiz, Taylor/Cushenberry. I know we need D, but I take Okudah at 6, then hunt for DT, JACK and DE. Lewis/Elliot/Jennings.

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I’d be okay with it though I much prefer a scenario in which we end up with say Okudah and Wills and don’t have a second round pick.