We're going to have the Hockenson draft argument all over again, this time with Okudah

Unbelievable that we’re shaping up for the exact same thing again.

So last draft, many of us screamed from the rooftops that you don’t take a tight end in the top 7 of the draft. We implored those of you who simply would not understand to get it. That tight end taken that high has to be George Kittle, Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten, and soon, or else you got terrible value out of a pick where you HAVE to get a difference-maker. Name an elite tight end in modern NFL history and, with only a couple of exceptions, they weren’t drafted in the first round, let alone in the top ten or higher.

Having not learned these glaring lessons, despite the Pettigrew pick, despite the Ebron pick, Quinn went with Hockenson. And, well, let’s just hope for a massive rebound season next year, or this is looking like exactly what many of us feared.

But we’re not here to talk about that. We’re here to talk about this year’s version – the Washington Redskins crushing our dreams at 2, taking Chase Young, and Bob Quinn eyeing CB Jeff Okudah at 3.

Going back 30 years of NFL drafts, all the way back to the 1989 Deion Sanders draft, the number of CBs taken in the Top 3 of the NFL draft is … two.

Bruce Pickens, 3rd overall by Atlanta, 1991
Shawn Springs, 3rd overall by Seattle, 1997.

Springs appeared in one Pro Bowl. Neither was ever a First-Team All Pro.

So let’s pan back to CBs taken in the Top 5 of the NFL draft. The total, over the past 30 years of drafts is … ten (including Pickens and Springs):

2018 Denzel Ward 4th Browns
2016 Jalen Ramsey 5th Jaguars
2011 Patrick Peterson 5th Cardinals
2003 Terance Newman 5th Cowboys
2002 Quentin Jammer 5th Chargers
1998 Charles Woodson 4th Raiders
1997 Springs
1992 Terrell Buckley 5th Packers
1991 Pickens
1989 Deion 5th Falcons.

Three of those ten are not like the others. Deion was a 6-time first-team All-Pro and eight-time Pro-Bowler. Woodson was a three-time first-team All-Pro and an eight-time Pro-Bowler. Peterson is a three-time first-team All-Pro and has been a Pro-Bowler eight times.

Jalen Ramsey may be on a similar career trajectory. He’s been a first-team All-Pro once, and a three-time Pro-Bowler.

The rest were mostly good but not great. Guys like Newman and Jammer had long careers as starters, but never really got the elite accolades. (Newman was a Pro-Bowler twice.)

Pickens was obviously a bust, especially where he was picked.

What’s the point of all this?

Based on history, cornerbacks are almost never taken as high in the draft as the Lions will be picking. If they are, they need to be VERY special. Okudah to me looks like he’s athletic and polished. But your scouting team needs to be sure he’s going to be a GREAT, 10-year pro to invest that elite, high pick for that position.

This is where some of you say, “No, he just has to be good. Solve the fit across from Slay, or maybe replace him if he’s on his way out of Detroit.” The same way many of you said, “No, Hockenson just needs to be good.” You don’t get it.

As others have pointed out, it often takes a CB a year or even most of a second year before they are acclimated and playing their best at the NFL level. Which means by the time they are becoming a top CB, it’s nearly time for a new contract. They then go and star for somebody else, or you’re paying them at their upper echelon level.

That is NOT how teams build championship-winners. You need people outperforming their contracts.

Oh, how I wish the Bengals and Redskins would give the Lions an easier choice. Like taking Burrow. :wink:

I was one that said taking a TE in the top 10 or even in round 1 was a terrible idea. It’s just bad value.

However CB’s taken in the top 10 can offer exceptional value. But you best get a good one who can contribute early on.

Problem is that rookie CB’s are often a future pick. Meaning they likely won’t help you much as a rookie. So I’m against taking one in the top 5 for this reason.

When drafting in the top 5 I want an impact player who can contribute right now. I want a difference maker and rarely are rookie CB’s difference makers. So if BQ wants to go CB he beat make sure he’s drafting a real stud.

My guess is that the Lions will trade away Slay for below market value. Slay will let it known he wants out of DET and BQ will be forced to take a low value trade offer. Then in an effort to correct the loss the Lions will draft a CB in round one.

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Was thinking the exact same thing today. CB that high? Nah.

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It wouldn’t be by first or second choice but I wouldn’t be as upset as I was about taking a TE. In FA you can find a top tier TE for relatively cheap. Less so with a CB

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. Hell no. Would be a colossal mistake on this team.

Trade down

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I’m not sure if the top-5 players cited invalidates picking a CB as much as intended. I dare say it validates taking one.

CB in the top 5 is justified by the positional value if the talent is there. TE in the top 10? No sir.

It’s a good argument and history does serve it well.

But may I ask how many 5’10" 208lb QB’s have been drafted #1 overall in the last 30 years?

The game is evolving and would it be a reach to think that the NFL draft and it’s trends may evolve as well?

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If the Lions pick 3 they’ll have either a blue chip pass rusher or blue chip LT available. Taking any other player would be SOL… especially a CB.

I can see it now Quinn trades Slay for a 3rd and then drafts a CB with the 3rd Oa pick. Even the Lions shouldn’t be able to screw this up. Assuming Burrow is gone, and you don’t trade up for him your pick will either be Young or Andrew Thomas. Maximum positional value and talent for either one.

Drafting CBs in the first ( especially this high) is a terrible idea. Top CBs are available constantly in FA or trade.

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A top 5 pick oughta be an immediate starter, so is he that good? Most CBs need some time to acclimate to the NFL, so it depends on their evaluation. Me, I’m a DL kinda guy, and a better pass rush makes everybody else look better on defense.

That list of players actually makes me consider drafting a DB.

I don’t know if you can find a lower bust rate for a position drafted in the top 5.

CB is one of those positions you can get good starters thru free agency. No need to blow a high pick ok a CB.

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Or you can just sign or trade for the several high quality ones, that are available in FA or trade every year, not spend a 3 OA pick on a CB and eliminate the guess work entirely.

You can apply that logic to any position.

Is paying 30 year old Chris Harris 13 million a year better than paying Zadrius Smith 16.5?

No you can’t apply that logic to every position. Fewer stud LTs, QBs and pass rushers are available in Fa or trade compared to CBs. That’s really not debatable.

What stud cornerback is available this offseason?

Byron Jones, Slay via trade, Chris Harris. We saw Ramsay and Peters get dealt this year. Theyre available literally every single year.

Trading isn’t free agency. Tunsil just got traded and Duane Brown got traded.

Trent Williams is available.

Byron Jones isn’t a stud and Chris Harris will be 31 before the season starts.

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If we stay and pick a player at 3, it better be a LT or DE, nothing else…and definitely not a CB.

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Lol. K. Byron Jones is a top 10 CB and most would agree. What a terrible argument you’re attempting to make. Just follow EVERY year in FA and you will see that FA is littered with them. I’m not doing the work for you, just try to keep up with the league if you’re going to try and constantly be argumentative with nothing to back it up with.