Why the Lions are failing to win games might surprise you

The Lions defense has been god awful this year. The DL has been the worst in football in nearly every category. We can’t get a pass rush and our LBers have been playing poorly. The only bright spot is the back 4. But I’m not convinced that our defense is to blame for a majority of our losses.

Yes the defense and offense go hand in hand. So you can’t remove all blame from a crappy defense but … bare with me a moment here.

There’s been 77 NFL games played so far this year.
50 of those 77 games the winning team scored more than 30pts. 14 losing teams scored more than 30pts. Teams that scored at least 30 points win 72% of the time.

The Lions are averaging just shy of 25 pts a game. We have to score more… period. Yes a better defense will give the offense more opportunities. A better defense will put us in better field position too. So defense is a part of it. But … I fear that even with better defensive play that it wouldn’t be enough. Stay with me here…

The Lions WR’s have the highest drop rate in the NFL.
The Lions OL is ranked below average in both run blocking (22nd) and pass blocking (26th). Only 6 teams are worse at pass blocking than the Lions are.
Stafford has struggled too. He’s been inconsistent.

It’s hard to imagine that the Lions have gotten worse in nearly every category on both offense and defense. I think we can say that ST play is maybe better?

MP plans to simplify the defense in hopes the players will play faster. But I think the offense is as much to blame for the losing as the defense is. I was expecting a lot more from this offense than we’re seeing now.

Ultimately if we can get to 30 points scored. No matter how we get there then we’re going to win nearly 3/4 of our remaining games.

What would you say is the easiest way for the Lions to do that?

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How do you score when the other team has the ball? I think we had the ball for 23 minutes against NO. My guess is we are ranked very low in the league, because our prevent defense let’s other teams run at will.

Unless you are KC or Seattle, you aren’t going to win consistently with a prevent D.

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Tank, lose out and draft Lawrence…we’ll win 3/4 of our games quite often going forward if so. I GUARANTEE he will single handedly next level whatever team drafts him. If I’m Lions ownership, THATS my plan for the future. I know it’s a team sport, but a generational talent at QB can go a looonng way in winning alot of games and establishing a winning team attitude…Lawrence will eventually put whoever drafts him over the top, maybe not right away, but 2-3 years in, especially with a moderately competent GM and coach, he is money in the bag. I want him here, very, very much…not sure if that answers your question, but thats how this team wins.

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I’d venture a guess, that wanting Lawrence might be the closest thing to a consensus this board will ever have. I mean, nothing will be 100%, but it’s time. And most of us Stafford supporters see that too. Especially with a guy like Lawrence coming out.
It’s why I can fully guarantee, that as the die hard Lions fans we all are, it’ll never happen.

Play the Jaguars they’ve given up 33, 31, 33, 30 the last three weeks. :smile:

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What about points of TOS adding into the op idea? Of those teams winning and breaking 30 points, what percent of the point were results of a drive off a TO? And it brings back the defense

You’re right. The offense is not holding up their end of things.
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/overall-drive-statsoff/2020
Detroit is 24th Offensive Drive yards.
20th in Time of Possession per drive.

Eh, lipstick on a pig. The fact is that their only hope is for their playmakers to step up and since the D doesn’t have any it is up to the O to do more.

Not sure they can out-suck the New York teams.

I see tank for this guy or tank for that guy, we are not one X guy away from doing wonders.

Stafford has been missing throws. In the last few years he rarely missed a throw, maybe once a game, but it feels like this year he’s under or overthrowing someone three or four times a game, and that makes a big difference.

so does inept RB unit, a bottom of the league defense , and our WR’s that lead the league in dropped footballs…

I appreciate the effort taken in this theory …

We are 1-3 had we scored at least 30 or even 33 we would only be 2-2 .

Of those 50 teams that won and scored more than 30 …how many of those teams needed to ?

How many teams through 4 weeks would only be 2-2 if the Offense had scored 33 points minimum ?

How many teams scored points late that were because the other team had to push the issue and come from behind and failed gifting points to opposing teams ?

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All those three and outs don’t help either

The Lions failing never surprises me…

We can’t play them every week… lol

I’m really not sure how you do that. Contrary to popular opinion, I find Bevell to be painfully average and unimaginative. His offense worked better ten years ago. The lions need more movement and misdirection on offense to keep the defense guessing. With Swift, Petersen, Hockenson, Golladay, Agnew, and Jones, they have the tools to do it. I just don’t think Bevell will.

I’m with you. There’s more to get out of this personnel than we’re getting.

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The only problem is that you have to get the #1 pick in the draft and that just isn’t going to happen.
This team is going to win some of the next games and Stafford will have a hot streak and the team will end up with 6 or 7 wins. The gang comes back for another year and Quinn picks some other irrelevant player at a non-premium position at #7 or 8 who ends up sucking. Probably a safety.

Ya never know.